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Ira Dember's avatar

Egberto, you mention 12 million people actively engaged in protest as America's 3.5% threshold, the tipping point. Yes, that's the total number. But just for the heck of it, look at people of voting age, i.e., 18 and over. Counting only these folks, 3.5% would equal about 9 million — shouting distance to the reported 7-8 million who turned out last Saturday for the second major No Kings rally.

However, that's cheating. Prof. Erica Chenowith discusses whole populations as her basis, not subsets such as voters or age groups. I urge you to study her highly readable 14-page 2020 pdf about the 3.5% rule of thumb: its definition, exceptions and limitations. https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/2024-05/Erica%20Chenoweth_2020-005.pdf

Importantly, Chenowith's rule-of-thumb is based on so-called "maximalist" movements, not "reformist" ones. Fwiw, I'd call universal healthcare aka Medicare for All an example of "maximalist" versus a "reformist" public option. That's my own example, not hers. Please refer to her paper for a more accurate take.

IMO, at my current level of ignorance, No Kings feels like a reformist movement. After another three years of horrific Trump fascism, who knows? Of necessity, it might morph into something more maximalist to force regime change. ¿Quien sabe?

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